NFL picks, predictions against spread Week 5: Chiefs outgun Bills; Seahawks, Packers, Cowboys stay hot

NFL picks, predictions against spread Week 5: Chiefs outgun Bills; Seahawks, Packers, Cowboys stay hot

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NFL picks, predictions against spread Week 5: Chiefs outgun Bills; Seahawks, Packers, Cowboys stay hot

Information about NFL picks, predictions against spread Week 5: Chiefs outgun Bills; Seahawks, Packers, Cowboys stay hot

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Week 4 was more like for our NFL picks and predictions against the spread. It still wasn’t smashing, but getting well above .500 is a win for any week.

There’s more information and data points available for all 32 teams as many of them forge their true identities for the 2021 season. Some, however, still remain difficult to read because of injuries and other variables.

The only thing we can do is try to use everything more to our advantage to make better game choices against the number as the action progresses. Here’s hoping Week 5 will give us the desired results again from the process:

(Game odds courtesy of FanDuel)

NFL POWER RANKINGS:
Cardinals fly to top; Packers, Cowboys, Seahawks flex; Titans fall

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NFL picks against the spread for Week 5

  • Game of the Week: Bills at Chiefs (-3, 56.5 o/u)

Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

The Bills’ defense has looked great this season but it hasn’t faced a quarterback of Patrick Mahomes’ caliber, home or away. The Chiefs have found a balanced offense and the big pass plays are flowing again to Tyreek Hill as teams continue to pick their poison between him and Travis Kelce. Mahomes didn’t like being under .500 and doesn’t want to be there again. The Bills’ offense also will cause plenty of problems for the Chiefs’ defense with Josh Allen playing well and spreading the ball around. Mahomes won’t be having a second consecutive loss at home while Buffalo is due for a bit of a road cooldown in prime time.

Pick: Chiefs win 34-27 and cover the spread.

  • Game of Midweek: Rams (-1.5, 54.5 o/u) at Seahawks

Thursday 8:20 p.m. ET, Fox and NFL Network

The Rams’ defense sprung some major leaks against the versatility and multiplicity of the Cardinals’ offense. They will get much of the same around Russell Wilson with bonus insider knowledge of the scheme from his offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, a Sean McVay protege. The Matthew Stafford hype train got a little derailed last week while Wilson’s is always chugging like a locomotive. The Rams can contain D.K. Metcalf with Jalen Ramsey but the Seahawks will get big plays elsewhere as they also run well. The Rams can exploit the Seahawks’ defense in many places too. This looks like a final possession game in the fourth quarter, so side with Wilson at home to be the hero.

Pick: Seahawks win 31-27.

Result: Rams 26, Seahawks 17

  • Rivalry of the Week: Giants at Cowboys (-7, 52.5 o/u)

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox

The Giants’ offense is figuring out more things with Daniel Jones, just as former Cowboys coach Jason Garrett was getting on the hot seat as offensive coordinator. Jones is doing his best to prove he’s a keeper by showing he’s much improved with better skill support. Dak Prescott, however, is in the total zone and Ezeklel Elliott has gone back to being a rushing beast at home. Jones gets more help from Saquon Barkley and his wideout so New York hangs around, but Dallas will keep flexing as the clear NFC East favorite.

Pick: Cowboys win 31-24 but fail to cover the spread.

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  • Lock of the Week: Titans (-4.5, 48.5 o/u) at Jaguars

Sunday 1 p.m. ET,  CBS

The Titans did not play well against the Jets with Derrick Henry being their only source of offense, which further exposed all their pass defense issues. After the big road upset in New York, Tennessee won’t let that happen again in Jacksonville. Mike Vrabel will get his team back on track while Urban Meyer, dealing with some trouble personal developments, will struggle to inspire his team the same way. Take advantage of the low early number as the Titans are certain to rebound and the Jaguars will be still hungover from blowing a big lead in Week 4.

Pick: Titans win 27-21 and cover the spread. 

  • Upset of the Week: Eagles (+3, 45.5 o/u) over Panthers

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Eagles should be better than 1-3. The Panthers are a bit inflated at 3-1. Jalen Hurts has been playing well in passing downfield and running for chunks when needed, but he needs to cut down on mistakes and could use more help from the traditional rushing attack, given Carolina’s defense is most vulnerable there. The Cowboys’ tight ends caused problems for the Panthers and the Eagles can do the same with Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz. It comes down to which stout defensive front will control the action vs. two weakened offensive lines. Although Sam Darnold has been a machine rushing for TDs, Hurts’ elusiveness gives Philadelphia the edge to escape with victory.

Pick: Eagles win 23-20.

  • Jets at Falcons (-2.5, 45.5 o/u) in London

Sunday 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network

Robert Saleh and Arthur Smith are both on the board with victories as promising rookie coaches. Saleh’s defensive influence is being felt on the Jets, while Smith is starting to figure out how to get the best out of Matt Ryan and the Falcons’ unique offensive weapons, including Cordarrelle Patterson. Rookie Zach Wilson can stay hot in Tottenham against another weak pass defense, but this also is a chance for Atlanta to do well with Smith’s preferred running across the pond.

Pick: Falcons win 27-20 and cover the spread.

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  • Dolphins at Buccaneers (-9.5, 47.5 o/u)

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Dolphins are showing a different kind of offense with Jacoby Brissett and the passing game has suddenly been competent as the running game has faded. Still, their group of wide receivers and tight end Mike Gesicki can do only so much on the other side of Brady. Brian Flores can scheme his pass defense well a la Bill Belichick, but for a second straight week, the Bucs will lean well on Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones and the running game with more big sacks and takeaways from the defense.

Pick: Buccaneers win 30-13 and cover the spread.

  • Saints (-2.5, 43.5 o/u) at Washington

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Washington’s defense has been a major disappointment all-around but gets a break here against a team with a limited and inconsistent offense around Alvin Kamara. New Orleans will continue to toggle Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill at quarterback based on situation. The Saints’ defense can be exploited plenty with Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin and a positive game script is needed to rev up a dormant WFT pass rush. Taylor Heinicke turns in another winning performance at home to push his team above .500 while the Saints drop below that even mark.

Pick: Washington wins 23-20.

  • Lions at Vikings (-10, 49.5 o/u) 

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Lions have been doing their best to play hard and get a win but their defense keeps going further in the tank and now the injuries are starting to pile up, too. The Vikings like to attack bad teams with Kirk Cousins and are due for another domination with its defense playing more the way Mike Zimmer likes. Jared Goff is in for another rough afternoon with limited receivers vs. Cousins, who gets to do whatever he wants with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen.

Pick: Vikings win 34-17 and cover the spread.

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  • Broncos (-1.5, 39.5 o/u) at Steelers

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Steelers desperately need a win at 1-3 and unfortunately it takes a team with a worse QB situation than theirs with Ben Roethlisberger. Enter the Broncos, who might need to start Drew Lock over a concussed Teddy Bridgewater against a tricky pass defense in a potential one-dimensional attack. Pittsburgh has to win games with D and grinding ground game with rookie Najee Harris and this battle of attrition is just what it needs at home.

Pick: Steelers win 17-14.

  • Packers (-3, 50.5 o/u) at Bengals

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Packers know they will have their hands full with another 3-1 team from the other North. Their pass rush might be down two Smiths and shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander (shoulder) will be a big absence against Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. They will need to win this with Aaron Rodgers outdueling Joe Burrow vs. the Bengals’ cornerbacks. Rodgers gets a little more from his fellow Aaron (Jones) running than Burrow gets from his fellow Joe (Mixon) to win on the road.

Pick: Packers win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.

  • Patriots (-8.5, 39.5 o/u) at Texans

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Following the revenge game against Brady, Belichick gets to prepare his pass defense for another rookie quarterback, Davis Mills. After some pregame pleasantries with his former personnel colleague Nick Caserio, the coach will make it rough on the struggling Mills while also containing his go-to guy, former Patriots receiver Brandin Cooks. New England’s own confident rookie QB, Mac Jones, turns in another strong performance and this time is rewarded with a definitive victory.

Pick: Patriots win 24-7 and cover the spread.

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  • Bears at Raiders (-5.5, 44.5 o/u)

Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

The Bears are an offensive work in progress and are playing games with their starting quarterback decision. Their defense has been great making plays at times and leaky at other times. Chicago has classic inconsistency at 2-2 but have a few skill players to cause Las Vegas concerns, especially if David Montgomery (knee) doesn’t need to miss time. The Raiders have played well at home with Derek Carr and should overachieve to the required level on defense.

Pick: Raiders win 23-19 but fail to cover the spread.

  • Browns at Chargers (-2.5, 47.5 o/u)

Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

The Browns have one big advantage in this matchup: Their run blocking and their pair of special backs, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. They are built to attack the Chargers’ weaknesses well and can avoid their strengths. The Dawg Pound also will have a good traveling crowd for backup. Justin Herbert will answer with some big plays with his top wideouts, but Cleveland’s defense makes a key play to preserve another gritty victory late.

Pick: Browns win 24-22.

  • 49ers at Cardinals (-5.5, 48.5 o/u)

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox

The 49ers will be rolling out Trey Lance full-time with Jimmy Garoppolo (calf) injured again.The rookie first-rounder was a little shaky with extended time against the Seahawks but should settle better into his dual threat role for Kyle Shanahan’s offense. There’s nothing wrong with a locked-in Kyler Murray in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. He’s the MVP front-runner of a blooming powerhouse. The 49ers have enough defensive holes to think he’ll outlast some dazzle from Lance.

Pick: Cardinals win 31-27 but fail to cover the spread.

  • Colts at Ravens (-7, 46.5 o/u)

Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

The Ravens are finding their groove on offense as they are becoming less dependent on the running game around Lamar Jackson and becoming more aggressive in getting everyone involved in the passing game. The Colts are going back to their run-heavy game plan featuring Jonathan Taylor with Carson Wentz making clutch throws. Baltimore’s overall defense, execution and efficiency is better and there’s always extra fan emotion in prime time when it plays the team from Indy that used to call Charm City home.

Pick: Ravens win 30-20 and cover the spread.

Vinnie Iyer’s 2021 picks:

  • Week 4 record against the spread: 11-5
  • Week 4 record straight up: 13-3
  • Season ATS: 32-32
  • Season straight up: 42-22

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